Feb 16, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers ahead LeBron James (6) takes the ball down courtroom within the first half in opposition to the Utah Jazz at Crypto.com Area. Obligatory Credit score: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports activities
- LeBron James wants simply 36 factors to interrupt Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s report and turn out to be the NBA’s all-time main scorer
- LeBron’s Lakers host the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder tonight in Los Angeles and his over/underneath level whole is 31.5
- See the chances that LeBron breaks Kareem’s report tonight together with betting evaluation
It’s been a foregone conclusion for months, arguably years, that LeBron James would ultimately break Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s NBA scoring report of 38,387 factors. As of February 7, 2023, the King sits simply 35 factors behind Kareem, and LeBron’s Lakers are in motion in opposition to the defensively-suspect OKC Thunder this night.
DraftKings has been providing odds on when LeBron would break the report for a number of weeks now. Final Tuesday, tonight’s recreation in opposition to the Thunder was listed because the +130 second-favorite. As of this morning, tonight’s recreation in opposition to the Thunder stays the +130 second-favorite. (Shout out to the oddsmakers.)
Odds When LeBron James Break’s Kareem’s NBA Scoring File
| Opponent | Date | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder | 2/7/23 | +130 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 2/9/23 | -200 |
| Golden State Warriors | 2/11/23 | +850 |
| Portland Path Blazers | 2/13/23 | +3500 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 2/15/23 | +9000 |
| Golden State Warriors | 2/23/23 | +15000 |
| Dallas Mavericks | 2/26/23 | +15000 |
| Memphis Grizzlies or later | 2/28/23 | +4500 |
Odds as of three:15 pm ET, Feb. 7, at DraftKings. Declare the DraftKings Sportsbook bonus code to wager on LeBron breaking the report tonight.
Thursday’s recreation in opposition to the Milwaukee Bucks is the heavy -200 favourite, whereas each different possibility on the board is +850 or longer. Realistically, any possibility past Saturday’s recreation with the Warriors would require James lacking a minimum of one recreation.
LeBron’s over/underneath level whole for tonight has been set at 31.5 with the over barely favored (-118o/-104u).
Lakers Play Excessive-Scoring Video games
For those who haven’t been following the NBA this season and are simply tuning in to see LeBron break the report, know that the Lakers are an unpleasant 25-29 on the season with a -1.3 common level differential per recreation.
LA has been higher of late. The staff began a dismal 2-10 and has truly performed the remainder of their schedule 4 video games over .500. They’ve been considerably higher at residence (13-12) than on the highway (12-17), however LeBron’s splits are reversed: he’s averaging 31.0 PPG in highway video games and simply 28.8 PPG at residence.
They’re liable to high-scoring video games; they give up the fourth-most factors per recreation and sit twentieth in Defensive Ranking. Their offense is sixth in scoring common however simply 18th in Offensive Ranking.
Tonight’s opponent, OKC, is an up-tempo staff that sits twentieth in scoring protection (116.4 PPG) however an above-average twelfth in Defensive Ranking.
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LeBron’s Scoring Averages Say the OKC Thunder Recreation Is a Longshot
On the ripe previous age of 37, LeBron is averaging an outstanding 30.0 factors per recreation. Whereas his Participant Effectivity Ranking (PER) is simply 24.8, his second-lowest of the final 15 years and out of doors of the NBA’s high ten, he nonetheless sits sixth within the Affiliation in Utilization Share (33.2%).
In 43 video games this season, he has solely exceeded 35 factors on ten events (23.2% of the time). The +130 odds for him to interrupt the report tonight carry an implied likelihood of 43.48%. On the face of it, betting on the Thunder recreation is horrible worth.
What the averages don’t account for is context. The scoring report has been looming massive for James – certainly all the Lakers staff – for weeks now. There’s going to be intrinsic and extrinsic motivation to have it over with.
It’s additionally seemingly that LeBron would favor to interrupt the report at residence. There’s nonetheless yet one more recreation on LA’s present homestand (vs Milwaukee on Thursday). So there received’t essentially be a way of urgency to do it entrance of the house crowd tonight.
General, this isn’t a wager I’m wanting to make. I don’t need to lay -200 odds on the Milwaukee recreation (66.7% implied likelihood). Nor do I need to wager on James hitting 36 – which he’s solely completed ten instances this season – at +130 for tonight’s recreation.
If I had a free wager to make use of on the sport, I might put it on LeBron breaking the report this night. However I’m not spending my very own cash on it.
Sascha Paruk
Sascha was a hockey participant in his youth, a lawyer in his capricious mid-20s, and has been with SBD since 2014. He covers all the things you may wager on, however focuses on soccer, basketball, politics, baseball, and hockey.
