Churchill Downs Odds & Picks – Turf Basic Stakes & Extra – 2023 Kentucky Derby Undercard
Nov 5, 2022; Lexington, KY, USA; Cody’s Want, outdoors with Junior Alvarado up, battles Cyberknife, proper, with Florent Geroux up, on the end of the Breeders’ Cup Dust Mile at Keeneland Race Course on Saturday, November 5, 2022, in Lexington, Kentucky. Obligatory Credit score: Michael Clevenger and Erik Mohn-USA TODAY Sports activities
- Seven Graded Stakes races are being run previous to the Kentucky Derby
- Don’t restrict your cash making opportunites to the Run for the Roses when there are a lot of extra races on the Kentucky Derby undercard
- What favorites can we rely on, and which longshots stand a giant shot at Churchill Downs Saturday?
The Kentucky Derby undercard is superior. Race after race consists of top quality deep fields that create numerous good wagering alternatives.
Whereas a ton of time is spent on the primary occasion, the secondary races don’t necesarily entice as a lot consideration. That may present worth in wagering.
Hearth up your favourite horse racing betting websites, and let’s make some Kentucky Derby undercard picks.
Kentucky Derby Undercard Picks
|Derby Metropolis Distaff||Goodnight Olive||-120|
|Churchill Distaff Turf Mile||Converse of the Satan||+350|
|Pat Day Mile||Basic Jim||+400|
|American Turf||Speak of the Nation||+1000|
|Churchill Downs Stakes||Endorsed||+500|
|Turf Basic||Bye Bye Melvin||+600|
The stakes motion on Saturday will get rolling at 12:04 pm EST with USA Community dealing with protection till NBC takes the torch at 2:30pm. To get an thought of why massive deep fields create wagering worth, pari mutuel betting in horse racing primarily means bettors are dealing with off with one another, not the home. The extra entrants, the extra unfold out the cash wager. Let’s dig in to an incredible day within the sport of kings, and make some Churchill Downs picks.
$20 NO SWEAT FIRST BET (CO, IL, IN, LA, MD, MA, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY)
$200 SIGNUP BONUS
$20 NO SWEAT FIRST BET (AR, CA, DE, FL, KY, NH, NM, ND, OR, RI, SD, VT)
Derby Metropolis Distaff Prediction
This seven furlong dash for older females may have the most important favourite of the day on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Dash champ Goodnight Olive (-120) has received seven straight races and is five-for-five on the distance.
If anybody can beat Goodnight Olive, it is likely to be Sizzling and Sultry (+600). She has been dealing with high notch competitors working longer, and now returns to a dash which she has confirmed productive at.
Depraved Halo (+300) beat Matareya (+350) narrowly on March 31 at Oaklawn Park. Each are 4 yr olds making their second begin of the yr, which regularly is part of the cycle the place they enhance.
Derby Metropolis Distaff Picks: Goodnight Olive (-120)
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Prediction
A mile turf affair for fillies and mares is highlighted by Spendarella (+140). She has received all 4 of her races in America, and her one attempt at England’s Royal Ascot, maybe the highest grass monitor on the earth, was a strong second. That mentioned, that is her first race as a 4 yr previous, and first time dealing with older, extra polished opponents.
Converse of the Satan (+350) was dominant on this race final yr, her first attempt within the US after a number of massive time efforts in France. Nonetheless, she obtained out gradual and ran poorly on the Belmont Stakes undercard, after which didn’t run for eight months. Her solely race this yr was an unthreatening fifth at Gulfstream Park in March. She has a ton of expertise, however what has occurred the final two begins? Coach Chad Brown additionally situations Haughty (+400) and Fluffy Socks (+450).
Haughty is making her 4 yr previous debut and coming off her greatest profession race. She was terrific beating a superb subject in August’s Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga. That is her first attempt towards older foes. Fluffy Socks hasn’t received since 2021, however she is chopping again in distance, and has sometimes run massive time races.
Churchill Distaff Mile Picks: Converse of the Satan (+350)
Turf Dash Prediction
You can also make an argument for many of the 14 horses attempting this five-and-a-half-furlong sprint. Huge Invasion (+350) is the tepid favourite making his second begin as a 4 yr previous, and second attempt after a six month break. He’s received seven of 9 profession races and 6 of seven at this distance. He has one graded stakes victory, within the G3 Fast Name at Saratoga in July.
Arrest Me Pink (+400) completed third in final month’s Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland. He missed by solely half a size, however was behind Unhealthy Beat Brian (+1500) who was +4093 that afternoon. Oceanic (+1500) was fourth. Artemus Citylimits (+1200) was +418, however was labored up earlier than the race and completed eleventh. It is likely to be value giving him a mulligan. His prior 4 races are all sturdy. Arrest Me Pink received this occasion as the favourite final yr.
Motorious (+800) dominated an honest subject at Santa Anita in a Grade 3 occasion in March, his greatest profession win. He usually goes a bit additional, however his six-and-a-half-furlong type is great. He’s amongst our greatest bets for the Kentucky Derby undercard.
Tuft Dash Picks: Motorious (+800)
Pat Day Mile Prediction
A one flip mile grime race for 3 yr olds is called for the Corridor of Fame jockey Pat Day, who received the 1992 Kentucky Derby aboard Lil E. Tee. On paper it’s a 14 horse scramble, with numerous pace signed up.
Echo Once more (+350) received an allowance race at Oaklawn Park on March 30, and has confronted a number of horses working for roses later within the day. He has been caught on the rail in every of his final three races.
Basic Jim (+400) was great profitable the Grade 3 Swale Stakes in February. It was by a mile his greatest profession effort, although he was blocked when ending fourth in an allowace occasion in Florida in January 1.
Gun Pilot (+500) received his debut at Churchill Downs, and since then has raced 4 occasions at Oaklawn Park. His second place effort final outing in a $200,000 stakes race was strong. Every of his races on quick grime have been sturdy.
Fort Bragg (+450), Curly Jack (+1200), Frosted Departure (+2000), and Bourbon Bash (+1200) are dropping out of Derby preps. Fort Bragg has been dealing with high Derby candidates routinely, and has hit the board a pair occasions towards them. Curly Jack has received two of three begins at Churchill Downs.
Pat Day Mile Picks: Basic Jim (+400)
Beneath supply obtainable in AR, CA, DE, FL, KY, NH, NM, ND, OR, RI, SD, VT
Beneath supply obtainable in CO, IL, IN, LA, MD, MA, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY
American Turf Prediction
One other race with plenty of choices, this mile-and-a-sixteenth problem for 3 yr olds features a pair of high choices from high coach Todd Pletcher, kind of just like the Kentucky Derby.
Main Dude (+250) has three wins in eight begins, and completed second behind Two Phil’s on an artificial floor at Turfway Park final outing. He received a Grade 3 race on turf in February that featured a top quality subject.
Along with Main Dude, Pletcher has Far Bridge (+350). He’s two-for-two, and obtained an ideal journey in beating Carl Spackler (+300) in each horses debut. Every returned to win their second race, Far Bridge towards a good elective claiming subject by greater than three lengths, and Carl Spackler towards maidens by almost 9 lengths.
Speak of the Nation (+1000) has come alive since being positioned on turf two races in the past. He crushed a mediocre subject of elective claimers at Tampa Bay Downs in February, after which a month later regardless of going huge on each turns, rolled by strong stakes horses together with Mo Stash (+1000) at Tampa to win by two-and-a-half-lengths. Mo Stash returned to win a Grade 3 occasion at Keeneland.
American Turf Picks: Speak of the Nation (+1000)
Churchill Downs Stakes Prediction
A seven furlong grime check for older males consists of Cody’s Want (-120), not solely the Breeders Cup Dust Mile champ, however among the many most inspiring story’s within the sport.
Cody’s Want has received 4 straight and is the almost definitely winner, albeit at a really brief worth. He’s four-for-four at Churchill Downs however just one for 3 going seven furlongs.
Endorsed (+500) could do his greatest working in Florida. He has three straight Gulfstream Park victories, together with a pair of graded stakes. He beat respectable horses in each and has important class in his previous, however has run in Louisville six occasions, and hasn’t received but.
A former claimer, Tejano Twist (+600) has run one sturdy race after one other. That is the very best subject he has ever confronted on the Kentucky Derby undercard, he’s simply one-for-seven at Churchill Downs, and prefers shorter races.
Churchill Downs Stakes Picks: Endorsed (+500)
Kentucky Derby Contenders Latest Kind – Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel Of Empire & Extra
Turf Basic Prediction
This $1 million mile-and-an-eighth occasion for older horses consists of solely a one Grade 1 winner, Santin (+450). Since taking this occasion final yr, Santin has a single victory, and 4 races the place he has not completed among the many high three. He stumbled in the beginning of his solely race this yr, the Kentucky Cup Basic on an artificial monitor. He misplaced to Hong Kong Harry (+350) in November at Del Mar. Hong Kong Harry received back-to-back graded stakes outdoors San Diego final summer time, however his solely race this yr was a fourth place effort going shorter in March at Santa Anita.
Pletcher appears to have discovered one thing on grass with As much as the Mark (+400). His 5 grime races had been okay, however three tries on turf have been sturdy. He received a pair of elective claimers at Gulfstream, after which ran proper with Breeders Cup winner Trendy Video games at Keeneland on April 14, ending third in a Grade 1 race.
Regular On (+500) is one other Pletcher choice. He received a stakes race at Gulfstream making up floor down the stretch a month in the past. He was second in a Grade 2 March 4.
Veterans Spooky Channel (+500), and Bye Bye Melvin (+600) are graded stakes winners. Spooky Channel has received 4 of 5 although most likely not towards this caliber of competitors. He received a Grade 2 on the Honest Grounds in late March. Bye Bye Melvin ought to have the early lead, can anybody catch him? He has only a single win since 2020, however has confronted the very best turf horses within the nation in every of his final two races, and received at Saratoga on September 1.
Turf Basic Picks: Bye Bye Melvin (+600)
In search of extra Kentucky Derby picks and predictions? Get extra Derby protection from SBD beneath!