Celtics-Warmth NBA playoff sequence exposes ESPN’s damaged analytics mannequin

It appears unlikely ESPN’s NBA analytics formulation has ever watched basketball earlier than.

Whereas it’s actually stunning that the Warmth are beating the Celtics so summarily that Magic Johnson is flat-out saying Boston has “give up,” the concept that they may win the sequence was not almost as unlikely as ESPN’s analytics forecasted.

Earlier than the sequence, ESPN stated the Warmth had only a three p.c probability of successful the sequence; playing odds had the Warmth at +400 and the Celtics at -550, which might imply the market noticed Miami as having a couple of 19 p.c probability to tug off the upset.

Even after Miami jumped out to a 2-0 lead, with each wins coming in Boston, ESPN’s analytics claimed the Celtics had a 65 p.c probability to win the sequence, a staggering quantity that defied logic.

This was severely at odds with the playing odds, the place the Warmth had been -180 and Celtics +150, that means the market had the Celtics with a couple of 39 p.c probability to come back again.

Now that the Warmth are up 3-0, ESPN remains to be giving the Celtics a comically giant probability to tug off the unprecedented feat of overcoming this deficit in an NBA playoff sequence (it has by no means been completed in a best-of-seven sequence in league historical past).

In response to ESPN’s BPI on Monday morning, the Celtics have a 31 p.c probability to do what no crew within the NBA has ever completed.

Maybe at some point an NBA franchise will pull off a shocking turnaround just like the Pink Sox did to the Yankees within the 2004 ALCS, however the odds are loads longer than about three in ten.

The playing odds cited in ESPN’s graphic would give the Celtics a couple of 12 p.c probability to come back again, and it’s most likely even longer than that given extra bettors are more likely to take a flier at a giant seven-to-one a number of on their wager than lay $12 to win $1.